By Larry Levine –
They’re at it again. The talking heads on cable TV and the media analysts are all over the “story” of the youth vote. It isn’t turning out for Sen. Bernie Sanders, they’re tell us, and that could mean trouble for the Democrats in November.
They are correct in that Sanders’ highly touted revolution of young, first time voters isn’t materializing. They’re wrong in forecasting what that could mean for November.
As if they were reading from the same script, pundits on both MSNBC and CNN last night (March 4) were predicting doom for the Democrats in November if they don’t do something to excite the youth vote and turn them out to the polls.
This morning’s L.A. Times headline read: Growth required to beat Trump. The subhead reads Neither Democrat can prevail in November without broadening his appeal and unifying the party.
Here’s a fact to consider: if the same people were to vote in November 2020 who voted in November 2016 and no one else were to vote, the Democrats probably would win the election.
• There is little chance that any state that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 would not thing Donald Trump is such and upstanding and outstanding individual that they should switch.
• Clinton lost Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by a total of 77,000. She didn’t campaign in Michigan and Wisconsin because her datameisters decided “we always carry those states.” She made an effort in Pennsylvania, but not enough for the same data-driven reason. Flip those three states and it’s bye-bye Trump.
Sure, it would be handy to have a larger turnout of young voters or any other group of favorable voters in November and we have to assume antipathy for Trump will create that on the natural and the Democrats will spend resources to drive that effort. But the youth vote? It is legend within the political consulting world that young voters are the worst turnout group on the registration roles. It’s proving out again now and there are more delectable targets available for the fall.
Remember, however, the same pundits who are generating this conversation today were telling us a week ago that former Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign was all but dead. It’s what I call the Open-Mic Syndrome. They are being paid a lot of money to sit in front of a hot microphone. Silence is not an option.