By Larry Levine –
CNN announced the other day that their analysis indicates Joe Biden would garner 290 Electoral College votes to win the November 3 Presidential Election. I think they are being overly cautious. But then, it has to remain a race to retain audience interest.
My read of the states has Biden with 335 Electoral College votes to President Trump’s 168. I have the 35 votes of three states unallocated, not enough to change the result. Here are the 27 states I project for Biden along with their electoral college votes:
California – 55, Florida – 29, New York – 29, Pennsylvania – 20, Illinois – 20, N. Carolina – 15, Michigan – 16, New Jersey – 14, Virginia – 13, Washington – 12, Arizona – 11, Massachusetts – 11, Maryland – 10, Minnesota – 10, Wisconsin – 10, Colorado – 9, Connecticut – 7, Oregon – 7, Nevada – 6, New Mexico – 5, Nebraska – 1, Hawaii – 4, New Hampshire – 4, Maine – 4, Rhode Island – 4, Delaware – 3, Dist. of Columbia – 3, Vermont – 3.
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin started the year as the crucial three. Those three states voted for Trump in 2016 after voting for President Barack Obama twice. Add them to the states Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and the Democratic candidate would be elected. Because of the heavy absentee voting in this election and because these three states restrict the ability of elections officials to process ballots early, the race could be over before results in these states are finally announced.
Most analysts still rate Florida as a toss-up. It also voted for Obama twice before flipping to Trump in 2016. I think the Republican assault on the Affordable Care Act and the character of Donald Trump will drive the heavy senior citizen vote and the state to Biden.
North Carolina voted Republican in the last two Presidential elections after going to Obama in his first race. Voter registration, demographic shifts and an all out effort by the Biden campaign should pay off this time.
Arizona appears poised to punish Trump for demeaning the late Sen. John McCain. That, plus demographic shifts and strong efforts by in-state Democrats should push the state to Biden.
Here are the 21 states I have listed for Trump along with their Electoral College votes:
Texas – 38, Georgia – 16, Tennessee – 11, Missouri – 10, S. Carolina – 9, Alabama – 9, Louisiana – 8, Kentucky – 8, Oklahoma – 7, Utah – 6, Arkansas – 6, Mississippi – 6, Kansas – 6, Nebraska – 4, West Virginia – 5, Idaho – 4, Montana – 3, S. Dakota – 3, N. Dakota – 3, Alaska – 3, Wyoming – 3.
Democrats have had their eyes on Texas with growing anticipation in recent years. I doubt the state is ready to cross over yet. Georgia has Democrats salivating over the prospect of putting a crack in the solid Republican hold on the south. Early heavy voter turnout of Democrats has driven optimism to new highs. Both of these states saw impressive showings by in-state Democrats in 2018 – Beto O’Rourke for U.S. Senate in Texas and Stacy Abrams for Governor in Georgia. If the two states actually are moving toward the Democratic column, I don’t see it happening yet.
The three states I have unassigned are Ohio – 18, Indiana – 11 and Iowa – 6. Ohio and Iowa voted for Obama twice before moving to Trump in 2016. I think Iowa will wind up giving its Electoral College votes to Biden. Ohio is a big mystery. While Democrats were sweeping the nation in the 2018 mid-term election, Ohio went Republican except for the election of Senator Sherrod Brown. Indiana is likely for Trump but I just can shake the feeling that something may be afoot there. It went for Obama in his first election, but that could have been because of the spill over media coverage Obama got in his home state of Illinois.
Could anything happen to shake up this mix. Of course. But every time the calendar age turns that becomes more unlikely. The images of these two candidates are clearly etched in the public perception. No matter what comes out of the Trump camp, voters have shown a clear disinclination to not believe him. A majority tells pollsters they would not take a coronavirus vaccine just because Trump says it’s safe. On the other hand, Biden represents an end to government by chaos.